🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”