Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The average count of everyday murders monthly in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that homicide figures might not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had in these past months is extremely significant,” the President said, noting that last month the smallest amount of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central components of the President's security strategy include:

  • Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
  • Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
  • Increased collaboration between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts warned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia FarfĂĄn-MĂ©ndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico EvalĂșa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico EvalĂșa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] 
 have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it could obscure days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Using the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still grappling with extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas remarked.
Luis Miller
Luis Miller

A tech journalist and digital strategist passionate about exploring how technology shapes everyday life and culture.