Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
